#causality #correlation #flying spaghetti monster

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc

Or… Correlation implies causality. This is a logical fallacy. Keep this in mind when analyzing data. There are numerous cases of how people use this logical fallacy nowadays (most typically in newspapers). For example, the following graph shows a correlation between global warming and the number of remaining pirates. But this does not imply (of course), any causality between them. By the way, this graph appears in a Bobby Henderson’s clever parody of the type of arguments in Intelligent Design. ...

#email #marketing #response rate

Why I didn’t answer your email

In a recent Nature article, Albert-Lászlo Barabási and João Gama Oliveira, have found the perfect excuse for lazy people not answering some emails in their inbox: they analyzed the time response of emails and found that they follow a power law probability distribution of the form P(t) = 1/t. In particular this implies that not even the mean response time is finite. Hey! why should you then expect me to answer your emails within my lifetime period! ...

#bibliometrics #h-index

A number to rank them all

UCSD physicist Jorge E. Hirsch has propose a quick-and-dirty way to measure quality of academic scientist’s output. His method is explained and studied in a paper to be published in the November 15 issue of PNAS. The idea is very simple and it is called the h-index. This number relies on the number of citations our papers have. In particular the h-index is the maximum number h that verifies the following: at least h of papers of an author have h citations each. ...

#Stochastic Differential Equation #Simulation #Ito #Finance #Stock Market

Boundary preserving semi-analytical numerical algorithms for stochastic differential equations

Authors: Esteban Moro and Henri Schurz Journal: SIAM Journal of Scientific Computing, Volume 29 Issue 4, Pages 1525-1549 (2007). LINK | arXiv Abstract: Construction of splitting-step methods and properties of related non-negativity andboundary preserving numerical algorithms for solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) of Ito-type are discussed. We present convergence proofs for a newly designed splitting-step algorithm and simulation studies for numerous numerical examples ranging from stochastic dynamics occurring in asset pricing theory in mathematical finance (SDEs of CIR and CEV models) to measure-valued diffusion and superBrownian motion (SPDEs) as met in biology and physics. ...