#brownian motion #kolmogorov #simulation #stochastic #wiener

Writing bad letters of recommendation: the story of Bachelier and Lévy

Take a coin and toss it a number \(N\) of times in a time interval of duration \(T\). Suppose that every time you get head you win \(a\) euros and that you lose the same amount of money when you get tail. Then your capital is a random process with ups and dows like this: ![](/img/posts/figurebachelier.jpg) This process is a stochastic process usually called “Random Walk” and its properties depend on the parameters $N, a $ and \(T\). ...

#brownian motion #diffusion #humans

Humans are superdiffusive

When tea is poured in a cup of hot water, we observe a phenomenon called diffusion: in the end particles of tea spread evenly throughout the mass of water and we enjoy our cup of tea. Diffusion occurs as a result of the second law of thermodynamics (increase of entropy) and can be modeled quantitatively using the diffusion equation (or heat equation). This is a funny equation, since it establishes that the velocity of spreading is infinite while the mean root square fluctuations of the position of the particles grows in time as ...

#causality #correlation #flying spaghetti monster

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc

Or… Correlation implies causality. This is a logical fallacy. Keep this in mind when analyzing data. There are numerous cases of how people use this logical fallacy nowadays (most typically in newspapers). For example, the following graph shows a correlation between global warming and the number of remaining pirates. But this does not imply (of course), any causality between them. By the way, this graph appears in a Bobby Henderson’s clever parody of the type of arguments in Intelligent Design. ...

#email #marketing #response rate

Why I didn’t answer your email

In a recent Nature article, Albert-Lászlo Barabási and João Gama Oliveira, have found the perfect excuse for lazy people not answering some emails in their inbox: they analyzed the time response of emails and found that they follow a power law probability distribution of the form P(t) = 1/t. In particular this implies that not even the mean response time is finite. Hey! why should you then expect me to answer your emails within my lifetime period! ...